It was 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger might become the player he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
